Trump Has Created 1.5 Million Fewer Jobs Than Obama
The U.S. Department of Labor had two declarations in the previous month that showed job growth under President Trump is weaker than expected. On August 21 it published a preliminary estimate of its upcoming annual revision, which decreased its original job growth projection by 501,000 from April 2018 to March 2019.
The second was the monthly job report released on September 6 showing that only 130,000 jobs were created with June and July’s results decreasing by 15,000 and 5,000, respectively, for a net job gain of 110,000. The total was also helped by the Federal government hiring 25,000 people for the upcoming census, making net jobs added about 85,000.
Trump’s job growth falls short of Obama’s last three years
The Labor Department’s reconsidered job count brought down the April 2018 to March 2019 by 501,000. Expecting that the around 42,000 every month lower number is spread equally over the a year, Trump’s 2018 aggregate of 2.303 million employments misses the mark regarding Obama’s 2014 to 2016 outcomes and basically coordinates his 2.302 million for 2013. What’s more, 2018 was helped by Trump’s tax reduction sugar high.
· 2011 total: 2.075 million
· 2012 total: 2.174 million
· 2013 total: 2.302 million
· 2014 total: 3.006 million
· 2015 total: 2.729 million
· 2016 total: 2.318 million
· 2017 total: 2.153 million
· 2018 total: 2.303 million (first year of tax cut)
· Past 12 months: 1.782 million
· 2019 year to date through August: 1.141 million
· 2019 year to date annualized: 1.711 million
Trump’s monthly job results are decelerating
Monthly job growth peaked in 2014 at 251,000 per month, the fifth full year of the economic expansion. It fell to 179,000 per month in 2017 and got a small boost from Trump’s tax cut in 2018, moving the average to 192,000 per month, assuming that nine months of the revisions fall in 2018.
Assuming the remaining three months of the Labor Department’s revision were in 2019 it drops the average for this year to 143,000 jobs added per month. For the past 12 months the average has been 148,000, even lower than Obama’s results in 2011 and 2012.
· 2011 monthly average: 173,000
· 2012 monthly average: 181,000
· 2013 monthly average: 192,000
· 2014 monthly average: 251,000
· 2015 monthly average: 227,000
· 2016 monthly average: 193,000
· 2017 monthly average: 179,000
· 2018 monthly average: 192,000 (first year of tax cut)
· Past 12 months average: 148,000
· 2019 average per month through August: 143,000
The lower results over the past year are partially due to the length of the recovery but also from the recent slowdown in the economy. It doesn’t help that the Federal budget deficits are running over $1 trillion per year as far as the key can see and that Trump’s trade wars have created a higher level of uncertainty which keeps managers from taking on more people.
Over 31 months Obama added 1.5 million more jobs than Trump
Trump entered office on January 20, 2017 so starting with February 2017 he has been President for 31 months. Total job growth during that time has been 5.345 million or 172,000 per month with those results being helped by the tax cut.
Working back from January 2017, Obama’s last month in office, there had been 6.838 million jobs added or 221,000 per month. The difference for the 31 months is 1.493 million or 48,000 more per month than Trump.
Why use Obama’s last 31 months in office vs. his first 31 months
There were a few inquiries raised why I utilized Obama’s most recent 29 months in office versus his initial 29 months when I distributed a previous article that determined Trump had created very nearly 1 million less occupations than Obama. The explanation was (and is the reason I’m utilizing Obama’s most recent 31 months in this article) is that Obama begun his Presidency during the Great Recession. He had no influence over the a huge number of occupations being cut every month soon after he made the vow of office. To contrast Trump’s with Obama’s record it bodes well to utilize practically identical monetary conditions.